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Global Jet Capital Forecasts Transaction Dip in 2023

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Global Jet Capital Forecasts Transaction Dip in 2023

Global Jet Capital, the Florida-based business aircraft financier, is forecasting a 6.3% increase in new deliveries in 2023, but a 2.6% decrease in the total number of new and pre-owned business jet transactions, according to its 2023 Annual Business Jet Market Forecast report.

The net result of more new aircraft deliveries but fewer overall transactions is a 1% increase in the total dollar value of aircraft transactions.

Global Jet Capital remains bullish on new aircraft orders and deliveries, citing a strong order intake in 2022 and supply chain constraints limiting production as the two key structural factors contributing to an increased backlog for new aircraft deliveries. Over the next five years, Global Jet Capital is forecasting that new aircraft deliveries will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.6%, and the dollar value of new deliveries to increase at a CAGR of 6.4%, as manufacturers plan to increase production in the new few years to address the increased order backlog.

Pre-owned aircraft transactions are expected to further decline in 2023, as they did in 2022, with the number of transactions forecast to decrease by 4.8%, and the dollar value of transactions to decline by 8.5%. Despite the anticipated decline in 2023, Global Jet Capital believes that continued market demand should lead to an increase in more pre-owned transactions over the next five years, and expect pre-owned deliveries to rise at a 2.5% CAGR.

“As expected, we have seen a leveling off from the unprecedented demand that our industry experienced post-pandemic, but looking ahead, we see a steady growth pattern for both new and pre-owned aircraft,” said Andrew Farrant, Chief Marketing Officer, Global Jet Capital.

“Most OEMs have strong backlogs and should see improvements in supply-chain challenges that limited deliveries in 2022 and so far in 2023. Pre-owned transactions continue to return to rates more in line with historical trends and are expected to pick up in 2024 and beyond to reflect increasing demand from new aircraft models,” Farrant said.

The North American market is forecast to continue being the largest market for both new and pre-owned business jets, making up 77% of the total global market. Europe and Latin America will both remain important markets for pre-owned aircraft in particular.

Global Jet Capital projects $195 billion in total transaction volume of new and pre-owned aircraft between 2023 and 2027, with a CAGR of 3.1% during that time.


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